Economy of India
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| Economy of India | |
 | |
| Currency | 1 Indian Rupee (INR) (₨) = 100 Paise |
|---|---|
| Fiscal year | April 1–March 31 |
| Trade organisations | WTO, SAFTA |
| Statistics | |
| GDP (PPP) | $5.21 trillion (PPP) (2008 est.) (3rd) |
| GDP growth | 9.6% (2006/07) |
| GDP per capita | $1,089 (nominal); $4,543 (PPP) [2] |
| GDP by sector | agriculture: 19.9%, industry: 19.3%, services: 60.7% (2006 est.) |
| Inflation (CPI) | 3.5% (2008 est.) |
| Population below poverty line | 25% (2002 est.) [3] |
| Labour force | 509.3 million (2006 est.) |
| Labour force by occupation | agriculture: 60%, industry: 12%, services: 28% (2003) |
| Unemployment | 7.8% (2006 est.) |
| Main industries | textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, services |
| External | |
| Exports | $125 billion (Financial Year 2006-2007) |
| Export goods | textile goods, gems and jewelry, engineering goods, chemicals, leather manufactures, services |
| Main export partners | US 18%, the People's Republic of China 8.9%, UAE 8.4%, UK 4.7%, Hong Kong 4.2% (2005) |
| Imports | $187.9 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) |
| Import goods | crude oil, machinery, gems, fertilizer, chemicals |
| Main import partners | the People's Republic of China 7.2%, US 6.4%, Belgium 5.1%, Singapore 4.7%, Australia 4.2%, Germany 4.2%, UK 4.1% (2005) |
| Public finances | |
| Public debt | $132.1 billion (2006 est.) |
| Revenues | $109.4 billion (2006 est.) |
| Expenses | $143.8 billion; including capital expenditures of $15 billion (2006 est.) |
| Economic aid | donor: $17.3 million (2006) |
| Main data source: CIA World Factbook All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars | |
The economy of India, measured in USD exchange-rate terms, is the twelfth largest in the world, with a GDP in excess of $1 trillion (2008).[1] It recorded a GDP growth rate of 9.0% for the fiscal year 2007–2008 which makes it the second fastest big emerging economy, after China, in the world.[2] At this rate of sustained growth many economists forecast that India would, over the coming decades, have a more pronounced economic effect on the world stage. Despite this phenomenal rate of growth, India's large population has a per capita income of $4,542, measured by PPP, and $1,089, measured in nominal terms (revised 2007 estimate).[3][4] The World Bank classifies India as a low-income economy.[5][6]
India's economy is diverse, encompassing agriculture, handicrafts, textile, manufacturing, and a multitude of services. Although two-thirds of the Indian workforce still earn their livelihood directly or indirectly through agriculture, services are a growing sector and play an increasingly important role in India's economy. The advent of the digital age, and the large number of young and educated populace fluent in English, is gradually transforming India as an important 'back office' destination for global outsourcing of customer services and technical support. India is a major exporter of highly-skilled workers in software and financial services, and software engineering. Other sectors like manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, nanotechnology, telecommunication, shipbuilding, aviation , tourism and retailing are showing strong potentials with higher growth rates.
India followed a socialist-inspired approach for most of its independent history, with strict government control over private sector participation, foreign trade, and foreign direct investment. However, since the early 1990s, India has gradually opened up its markets through economic reforms by reducing government controls on foreign trade and investment. The privatisation of publicly owned industries and the opening up of certain sectors to private and foreign interests has proceeded slowly amid political debate.
India faces a fast-growing population and the challenge of reducing economic and social inequality. Poverty remains a serious problem, although it has declined significantly since independence. Official surveys estimated that in the year 2004-2005, 27% of Indians were poor.
Contents[hide] |
[edit] History
India's economic history can be broadly divided into three eras, beginning with the pre-colonial period lasting up to the 17th century. The advent of British colonisation started the colonial period in the 17th century, which ended with independence in 1947. The third period stretches from independence in 1947 until now.
[edit] Pre-colonial
The citizens of the Indus Valley civilisation (based around the river Indus in modern day Pakistan), a permanent and predominantly urban settlement that flourished between 2800 BC and 1800 BC, practised agriculture, domesticated animals, used uniform weights and measures, made tools and weapons, and traded with other cities. Evidence of well planned streets, a drainage system and water supply reveals their knowledge of urban planning, which included the world's first urban sanitation systems and the existence of a form of municipal government.[7]
The 1872 census revealed that 99.3% of the population of the region constituting present-day India resided in villages,[8] whose economies were largely isolated and self-sustaining, with agriculture the predominant occupation. This satisfied the food requirements of the village and provided raw materials for hand-based industries, such as textiles, food processing and crafts. Although many kingdoms and rulers issued coins, barter was prevalent. Villages paid a portion of their agricultural produce as revenue to the rulers, while its craftsmen received a part of the crops at harvest time for their services.[9]
Religion, especially Hinduism, and the caste and the joint family systems, played an influential role in shaping economic activities.[10] The caste system functioned much like medieval European guilds, ensuring the division of labour, providing for the training of apprentices and, in some cases, allowing manufacturers to achieve narrow specialization. For instance, in certain regions, producing each variety of cloth was the speciality of a particular sub-caste.
Textiles such as muslin, Calicos, shawls, and agricultural products such as pepper, cinnamon, opium and indigo were exported to Europe, the Middle East and South East Asia in return for gold and silver.[12]
Assessment of India's pre-colonial economy is mostly qualitative, owing to the lack of quantitative information. One estimate puts the revenue of Akbar's Mughal Empire in 1600 at £17.5 million, in contrast with the total revenue of Great Britain in 1800, which totalled £16 million.[13] India, by the time of the arrival of the British, was a largely traditional agrarian economy with a dominant subsistence sector dependent on primitive technology. It existed alongside a competitively developed network of commerce, manufacturing and credit. After the fall of the Mughals, India was administered by Maratha Empire. The maratha empire's budget in 1740s, at its peak, was Rs. 100 million. After the loss at Panipat, the maratha empire disintegrated into confederate states of Gwalior, Baroda, Indore, Jhansi, Nagpur, Pune and Kolhapur. Gwalior state had a budget of Rs. 30M. However, at this time, British East India company entered the Indian political theatre. Until, 1857, when India was firmly under the British crown, the country remained in a state of political instability due to internecine wars and conflicts.[14]
[edit] Colonial
Colonial rule brought a major change in the taxation environment from revenue taxes to property taxes resulting in mass impoverishment and destitution of the great majority of farmers. It also created an institutional environment that, on paper, guaranteed property rights among the colonizers, encouraged free trade, and created a single currency with fixed exchange rates, standardized weights and measures, capital markets, a well developed system of railways and telegraphs, a civil service that aimed to be free from political interference, and a common-law, adversarial legal system.[15] India's colonisation by the British coincided with major changes in the world economy—industrialisation, and significant growth in production and trade. However, at the end of colonial rule, India inherited an economy that was one of the poorest in the developing world,[16] with industrial development stalled, agriculture unable to feed a rapidly growing population, one of the world's lowest life expectancies, and low rates of literacy.
An estimate by Cambridge University historian Angus Maddison reveals that India's share of the world income fell from 22.6% in 1700, comparable to Europe's share of 23.3%, to a low of 3.8% in 1952.[17] While Indian leaders during the Independence struggle, and left-nationalist economic historians have blamed colonial rule for the dismal state of India's economy in its aftermath, a broader macroeconomic view of India during this period reveals that there were sectors of growth and decline, resulting from changes brought about by colonialism and a world that was moving towards industrialisation and economic integration.[18][19]While the exact sectors of growth and decline is of questionable importance, the overall effect of the changes brought about by colonialism, and India's degree of industrialisation and economic integration of India under the British rule on India's economy can be assessed from the kind of economy India inherited after the end of the colonial rule in India.
[edit] Independence to 1991
Indian economic policy after independence was influenced by the colonial experience (which was seen by Indian leaders as exploitative in nature) and by those leaders' exposure to Fabian socialism. Policy tended towards protectionism, with a strong emphasis on import substitution, industrialization, state intervention in labour and financial markets, a large public sector, business regulation, and central planning.[20] Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister, along with the statistician Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis, carried on by Indira Gandhi formulated and oversaw economic policy. They expected favourable outcomes from this strategy, because it involved both public and private sectors and was based on direct and indirect state intervention, rather than the more extreme Soviet-style central command system.[21] The policy of concentrating simultaneously on capital- and technology-intensive heavy industry and subsidising manual, low-skill cottage industries was criticized by economist Milton Friedman, who thought it would waste capital and labour, and retard the development of small manufacturers.[22]
India's low average growth rate from 1947–80 was derisively referred to as the Hindu rate of growth, because of the unfavourable comparison with growth rates in other Asian countries, especially the "East Asian Tigers".[15]
[edit] After 1991
In the late 80s, the government led by Rajiv Gandhi eased restrictions on capacity expansion for incumbents, removed price controls and reduced corporate taxes. While this increased the rate of growth, it also led to high fiscal deficits and a worsening current account. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which was India's major trading partner, and the first Gulf War, which caused a spike in oil prices, caused a major balance-of-payments crisis for India, which found itself facing the prospect of defaulting on its loans.[23] In response, Prime Minister Narasimha Rao along with his finance minister Manmohan Singh initiated the economic liberalisation of 1991. The reforms did away with the Licence Raj (investment, industrial and import licensing) and ended many public monopolies, allowing automatic approval of foreign direct investment in many sectors.[24] Since then, the overall direction of liberalisation has remained the same, irrespective of the ruling party, although no party has tried to take on powerful lobbies such as the trade unions and farmers, or contentious issues such as reforming labour laws and reducing agricultural subsidies.[25]
Since 1990 India has emerged as one of the wealthiest economies in the developing world; during this period, the economy has grown constantly, but with a few major setbacks. This has been accompanied by increases in life expectancy, literacy rates and food security.
While the credit rating of India was hit by its nuclear tests in 1998, it has been raised to investment level in 2007 by S&P and Moody's.[26][dead link][27] In 2003, Goldman Sachs predicted that India's GDP in current prices will overtake France and Italy by 2020, Germany, UK and Russia by 2025 and Japan by 2035. By 2035, it was projected to be the third largest economy of the world, behind US and China.[28][29]
[edit] Government intervention
[edit] State planning and the mixed economy
After independence, India opted for a centrally planned economy to try to achieve an effective and equitable allocation of national resources and balanced economic development. The process of formulation and direction of the Five-Year Plans is carried out by the Planning Commission, headed by the Prime Minister of India as its chairperson.[30]
India's mixed economy combines features of both capitalist market economy and the socialist planned economy, but has shifted more towards the former over the past decade. The public sector generally covers areas which are deemed too important or not profitable enough to leave to the market, including such services as the railways and postal system.
Since independence, there have been phases of nationalizing such areas as banking. More recently, there have been phases of privatizing such sectors.[31]
[edit] Public expenditure
India's public expenditure is classified as development expenditure, comprising central plan expenditure and central assistance and non-development expenditures; these categories can each be divided into capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. Central plan expenditure is allocated to development schemes outlined in the plans of the central government and public sector undertakings; central assistance refers to financial assistance and developmental loans given for plans of the state governments and union territories. Non-development capital expenditure comprises capital defense expenditure, loans to public enterprises, states and union territories and foreign governments, while non-development revenue expenditure comprises revenue defence expenditure, administrative expenditure, subsidies, debt relief to farmers, postal deficit, pensions, social and economic services (education, health, agriculture, science and technology), grants to states and union territories and foreign governments.[32][33][31]
India's non-development revenue expenditure has increased nearly fivefold in 2003–04 since 1990–91 and more than tenfold since 1985–1986. Interest payments are the single largest item of expenditure and accounted for more than 40% of the total non development expenditure in the 2003–04 budget. Defence expenditure increased fourfold during the same period and has been increasing due to growing tensions in the region, the expensive dispute with Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir and an effort to modernise the military. Administrative expenses are compounded by a large salary and pension bill, which rises periodically due to revisions in wages, dearness allowance etc. subsidies on food, fertilizers, education and petroleum and other merit and non-merit subsidies account are not only continuously rising, especially because of rising crude oil and food prices, but are also harder to rein in, because of political compulsions.[34][31]
[edit] Public receipts
India has a three-tier tax structure, wherein the constitution empowers the union government to levy income tax, tax on capital transactions (wealth tax, inheritance tax), sales tax, service tax, customs and excise duties and the state governments to levy sales tax on intrastate sale of goods, tax on entertainment and professions, excise duties on manufacture of alcohol, stamp duties on transfer of property and collect land revenue (levy on land owned). The local governments are empowered by the state government to levy property tax, Octroi and charge users for public utilities like water supply, sewage etc.[35][36] More than half of the revenues of the union and state governments come from taxes, of which half come from Indirect taxes. More than a quarter of the union government's tax revenues is shared with the state governments.[37]
The tax reforms, initiated in 1991, have sought to rationalise the tax structure and increase compliance by taking steps in the following directions:
- Reducing the rates of individual and corporate income taxes, excises, customs and making it more progressive
- Reducing exemptions and concessions
- Simplification of laws and procedures
- Introduction of Permanent account number to track monetary transactions
- 21 of the 29 states introduced Value added tax (VAT) on April 1, 2005 to replace the complex and multiple sales tax system[36][38]
The non-tax revenues of the central government come from fiscal services, interest receipts, public sector dividends, etc., while the non-tax revenues of the States are grants from the central government, interest receipts, dividends and income from general, economic and social services.[34]
Inter-State share in the federal tax pool is decided by the recommendations of the Finance Commission to the President.
[edit] General budget
The Finance minister of India presents the annual union budget in the Parliament on the last working day of February. The budget has to be passed by the Lok Sabha before it can come into effect on April 1, the start of India's fiscal year. The Union budget is preceded by an economic survey which outlines the broad direction of the budget and the economic performance of the country for the outgoing financial year. This economic survey involves all the various NGOs, women organizations, business people, old people associations etc.
India's union budget for 2005–06, had an estimated outlay of Rs.5,14,344 crores ($118 billion). Earnings from taxes amount to Rs. 2,73,466 crore ($63b). India's fiscal deficit amounts to 4.5% or 1,39,231 crore ($32b).[39] The fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.8% of GDP, by March 2007.[40]
[edit] Currency system
[edit] Rupee
The Rupee is the only legal tender accepted in India. The exchange rate as of May 23, 2008 is about 42.695 to a US dollar,[41] 67.335 to a Euro, and 84.5 to a UK pound. The Indian rupee is accepted as legal tender in the neighboring Nepal and Bhutan, both of which peg their currency to that of the Indian rupee. The rupee is divided into 100 paise. The highest-denomination banknote is the 1,000 rupee note; the lowest-denomination coin in circulation is the 25 paise coin.[42]
[edit] Natural resources
India's total cultivable area is 1,269,219 km² (56.78% of total land area), which is decreasing due to constant pressure from an ever growing population and increased urbanisation.
India has a total water surface area of 314,400 km² and receives an average annual rainfall of 1,100 mm. Irrigation accounts for 92% of the water utilisation, and comprised 380 km² in 1974, and is expected to rise to 1,050 km² by 2025, with the balance accounted for by industrial and domestic consumers. India's inland water resources comprising rivers, canals, ponds and lakes and marine resources comprising the east and west coasts of the Indian ocean and other gulfs and bays provide employment to nearly 6 million people in the fisheries sector. India is the sixth largest producer of fish in the world and second largest in inland fish production.[citation needed]
India's major mineral resources include Coal (fourth-largest reserves in the world), Iron ore, Manganese, Mica, Bauxite, Titanium ore, Chromite, Natural gas, Diamonds, Petroleum, Limestone and Thorium (world's largest along Kerala's shores). India's oil reserves, found in Bombay High off the coast of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and in eastern Assam meet 25% of the country's demand.[43][4]
Rising energy demand concomitant with economic growth has created a perpetual state of energy crunch in India. India is poor in oil resources and is currently heavily dependent on coal and foreign oil imports for its energy needs. Though India is rich in Thorium, but not in Uranium, which it might get access to if a nuclear deal with US comes to fruition. India is rich in certain energy resources which promise significant future potential - clean / renewable energy resources like solar, wind, biofuels (jatropha, sugarcane).
[edit] Physical infrastructure
Development of infrastructure was completely in the hands of the public sector and was plagued by corruption, bureaucratic inefficiencies, urban-bias and an inability to scale investment.[44]
India's low spending on power, construction, transportation, telecommunications and real estate, at $31 billion or 6% of GDP in 2002 had prevented India from sustaining higher growth rates. This had prompted the government to partially open up infrastructure to the private sector allowing foreign investment[45][46][31] which has helped in a sustained growth rate of close to 9% for the past six quarters.[47] India holds second position in the world in roadways' construction, more than twice that of China.[48] As of 2005 the electricity production was at 661.6 billion kWh with oil production standing at 785,000 bbl/day. India's prime import partners are: China 8.7%, US 6%, Germany 4.6%, Singapore 4.6%, Australia 4% as of 2006 CIA FactBook As of 15 January 2007, there were 2.10 million broadband lines in India. [4] Low tele-density is the major hurdle for slow pickup in broadband services. Over 76% of the broadband lines were via DSL and the rest via cable modems.
- See also: States of India by installed power capacity
- See also: Water supply and sanitation in India
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