UPA: Seven Points To Ponder
- Can an underperforming Congress continually depend on allies to shore up its numbers?
- With corruption becoming an electoral issue, can UPA take its foot off the 2G pedal now?
- Will a demanding Mamata Banerjee now be more difficult to handle than DMK?
- Will UPA's ability to initiate key reforms be thwarted by Mamata's stand?
- Will the scale of DMK's defeat have a bearing on the nature of UPA partners before 2014?
- Will Jaganmohan Reddy's victory affect the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh?
- Is Karnataka slipping out of Congress reach, with BJP winning bypolls despite charges?
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If we look at these election results through personalities, then we must acknowledge that two solitary and strong women have uprooted entrenched regimes and changed the rules of the political game. The long-expected collapse of the Left happened in Bengal and without much ado. A diminutive woman in a white sari stood tall as the famed citadel of cadres collapsed into dust and haze. The revenge in Tamil Nadu was more unexpected as J. Jayalalitha posted a decisive win over the squabbling, bleeding Karunanidhi clan.
But the revenge has actually been of the voters. They have sent the message that no political party, however entrenched, should take them for granted. The Left lost West Bengal the day it turned ideology on its head and brutally tried to claim people's land for corporate use. Similarly, the K clan was punished in Tamil Nadu for trying to convert the state into a family fiefdom and for behaving as if corruption was their birthright.
The politics that determined the results in Kerala and Assam was more traditional. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF won on expected lines despite a spirited fight by old Communist warhorse Achuthanandan. In Assam, CM Tarun Gogoi won a comfortable third term simply by not allowing polarisations to take over and taking the path of reconciliation by initiating talks with ULFA. "One gets the impression," says political analyst Pratap Bhanu Mehta, "that Gogoi's been the old-fashioned Congress synthesiser who could manoeuvre his way through the politics of polarisation the opposition was trying to play."
So was there a larger national message or was this just a sum of state battles? What has certainly been reinforced as far as the national players are concerned is that the Congress may have mounting problems everywhere but at least has a presence all around. The grand old party has also been able to call the BJP's bluff. For months now, the UPA government has looked so bad in New Delhi that it was presumed that opposition forces were gaining momentum. However, out of over 800 assembly seats, the BJP figures remain in single digits. That is why Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee declared at a press conference: "How can they claim to be a national party? I ask them not to destabilise the government but invite them to try and defeat us through elections."
But it is in Assam that the real tale of the BJP's limited power hangs. This was one state where the party was a genuine player and there were reports of a clever "unstated" alliance with the AGP. Yet, the BJP tally fell from 10 to five while the Congress won a third term, and with more seats than even 2006. Obviously, there will be a national rethink on the BJP's capacity now.
This affords a snapshot of the future political chessboard. It's now for the Congress to win and lose, and for the regional parties to provide the decisive shifts and turns. Listen only to what Ghulam Nabi Azad said about the Tamil Nadu verdict: "Don't blame the Congress. This is a game of alliance politics. When the alliance wins, everyone wins. When the alliance loses, we all lose." Off the record, Congress leaders admit they are secretly delighted with the Tamil Nadu result as the DMK—whose numbers are critical to UPA survival—will now be meek as a lamb. The 2G scam will continue to claim scalps, and that includes the possibility of Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi landing in jail. But with Jayalalitha expected to turn the heat on the DMK, they have no bargaining chips with Delhi unless suicide were considered a tactic of political survival. Hence, Congress leaders claim they have them where they want even if more of them land up behind bars.
The Tamil Nadu result also counters the argument that corruption is not really an issue with voters. It can become a regime-changing factor when it reaches gross proportions. The Congress will now try to use this to its advantage and claim it is the only dispensation that has taken such strong action against corruption that corporate bosses and politicians have landed in jail. In order to convincingly build its case, the party will also have to cooperate with the advocates of the Lokpal Bill and handle that situation tactfully.
But the real crisis staring Congress in the face is the big black hole that is expanding in its Andhra Pradesh bastion where Jaganmohan Reddy has done so well in the Kadapa bypoll. With the state sending the largest number of Congress MPs at the Centre, will the party now reach out to Jagan? Or is it too late for that and are we seeing the emergence of another regional force in the state? The situation is similar to what happened in another Congress bastion, Maharashtra, where the ncp split its base after Sharad Pawar walked out in 1999 in what was then seen as a rebellion against Sonia Gandhi. Since the political trend is towards strong regional forces, Jagan Reddy can certainly damage the Congress further. The party also has to decide whether it is for Telangana or not.
And fundamentally, with the Left so diminished, the Congress will also have to determine how much of that ideological space it can credibly appropriate for itself. The Nehru-Gandhi instinct is to at least seem to promote left-of-centre policies even as a sort of unbridled corporatisation continues. Surely a greater balance will have to be struck?
An interesting little cameo is currently being enacted in Uttar Pradesh where farmers protesting land acquisition policies found surprise support in Rahul Gandhi who appeared there dramatically, courted arrest and was later released. The Left learnt the hard way that land policies can undo a government. The UPA says it will come out with a coherent land acquisition policy and take the high ground on the issue.
The Congress can also take heart from the fact that after years of dealing with an indifferent or falling Muslim vote, there are signs of that support slowly coming back. In Kerala, large numbers of Muslims voted for the UDF alliance; the Muslim League too did very well. In West Bengal, Muslims abandoned the Communists and rallied behind Mamata and indeed the Congress. In Assam too, the Congress got impressive Muslim support. Handled by powerful but controversial Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh, the extraordinarily good result will only reinforce his position in the party.
As for the Left, it must now struggle to remain relevant. No one is ever finished in Indian politics, yet political forces do get circumscribed—the BJP has yet to really recover after its 2004 defeat. Karunanidhi too looks like a tragic character in a Shakespearean play who has just lost the last big battle of his life. The squabbling successors remain beset with their petty troubles. So over it is to the ladies from the east and south: who have no dynasty, no clan, no succession plan.
| ALSO IN THIS STORY |
ASSEMBLY POLLS Will Jagan's start be the Congress end? |
TAMIL NADU Jayalalitha has returned in a mandate against corruption and cronyism. Weaknesses she's prone to. |
PUDUCHERRY The AIADMK wave propels Congress rebel and ex-CM Rangaswamy to victory |
WEST BENGAL A new colour, a promise of renaissance. Mamata has to redeem her pledge, the Left can learn from the long making of its hubris. |
KERALA The Congress-led UDF scrapes through |
ASSAM Veteran savvy and economic growth helps Gogoi do a Sheila |
AUTHORS: SABA NAQVI
TAGS: ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS | UPA | TRINAMOOL CONGRESS | DMK | AIADMK | AGP | UDF |CONGRESS
SECTION: NATIONAL
SUBSECTION: COVER STORIES
PLACES: KERALA | TAMIL NADU | WEST BENGAL | ASSAM | PONDICHERRY | ANDHRA PRADESH
MAY 15, 2011 07:14 PM 23 | In the State polls the local leader and local issues invariably take a prominent place. This provides an in-built edge to a strong regional parties with local dedicated foot-soldiers,unlike the leaders of national parties who find it more rewarding and comfortable in the cozy ambience of studios of a slew of TV channels instead og heat and dust of the election battlefield,notwithstanding their seasonal visits nearer the elections. Poll pundits have already come out with their own analyses on the outcome of the recent polls to the 5 states. But with every new day it would become increasingly difficult for the corrupt, criminals, incompetent and the like to win comfortably. Very few of them will manage to win. Both national parties need to introspect. Congress may have a vicarious pleasure to see BJP humbled but the results are loud and clear to even a layman. The winners are Mamta,Jayalalita, Gogoi, Achutanandan, Yeddyurappa and Jagan Reddy. A mixed bag sans 2 major parties. |
MAY 15, 2011 03:58 PM 22 | Post # 18:
Excellent point, but why ? The answer is surely different from case to case. I was watching (from a distance) the last general election with focus on WB. In my initial count BJP would be bagging at least 5 seats in WB if not 7 - the root cause was Islam spreading like fire in WB (illegals from over the border ?). Then disaster struck for BJP in WB when their maestro Jaswant came up with his brilliant "Gurkhaland" plan.! The situation became so bitter for BJP that their state branch virtually disowned Jaswant in TV debates with Congress and others prior to the election. In fact, according to local news reports, the state BJP members in WB were not in speaking terms with their central party organisation. And then came the bombshell from BJP leader Rajnath that according to their opinion economy can be managed more efficiently if the state is small - hence there is the case of breaking up WB !!! I learned that directly from Calcutta TV news when Rajnath made that statement (as I was there for a few days during that time). I wondered if following that principle BJP were preparing to cut up their bastion Gujarat. So what was the end result - BJP won only one seat (Darjeeling) instead of 7 inspite of excellent prospects of winning that many in the beginning. Mind you that if Bengalis from erstwhile East Bengal are to be declared illegals as Al Bundy points out, then the same must be applied for the Nepalis who have over decades poured into WB due to open border in the north and clamouring now for "Gurkhaland". In my view it is the heavy handed BJP policy from their higher command that has alieniated BJP at the local levels in WB - there is absolutely no regard for what the electorate wants. It has nothing to do with the Commies or the Sonia & Co, who are of course benefitting by default. One must investigate what are the root cause of BJP not winning in other states similarly, excepting in their strongholds. |
MAY 15, 2011 12:31 PM 21 | "That said, I don't have much hopes for BJP in states with large minority populations" - @Whatsinaname, on the contrary BJP has better chances in areas with large minority population because of the polarisation of votes. BJP's vote share in Kerala has increased and they have done well in TN's Kanyakumari district, which has a significant Christian minority. Of course it may be difficult for them to attract alliance partners. |
MAY 15, 2011 12:28 PM 20 | I feel, that the feeling of the winning parties in an election, that they can wield power in a manner which they choose, is actually not desirable. All the mistakes in power, accruing to the ruling faction, takes place, with this basic assumption. What happened in Singur, and what is happening in Noida, in U P? In a true democracy, the ruling party or faction acts like a representative of the people. The M P or M L A represents his or her constituency. How can the M P or M L A tell his or her constituency, that their interests are going to be undermined even though he or she is their elected representative, by the assembly or the parliament to which the elected representative belongs? Is this not the murder of democracy? How the ruling faction wields power in a democratic nation like India, should be reviewed. If the people are with the government whole-heartedly, then there would be no need to elect the opposition in the proceeding election. I wonder how the U P A would fare in a general election today. |
MAY 15, 2011 12:22 PM 19 | Congress party has been completely decimated in Tamil Nadu. Most of Rahul Gandhi's handpicked youth congress leaders and others such as the state congress president and senior leaders, Yashoda and Peter Alphonse, have lost. Congress has done badly in Kerala where VS and CPM are the real winners (considering the 2009 Lok Sabha results). Whatever few seats that Congress managed to win in West Bengal is thanks to Mamta didi and the Assam victory is due to fragmentation of opposition votes. Pondicherry has also kicked out the congress. And everyone knows that there is no congress in UP and Bihar. So perhaps it is time to rename the party as Indian Notional Congress. |
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